Barbara Heinzen, PhD
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Home > Publications > Articles & presentations > Scenario studies


Most of the scenario studies done by Barbara Heinzen have been proprietary with the exception of public interest scenaro work.  In 2001, Shell Southern African commissioned work on the impact of HIV/AIDS in their region.  Betwen 1998-2008, the Society for International Development organised four public domain scenario exercises in East Africa. This was followed by similar work from 2009-2011 with the Center for Houston's Future in Texas, USA.  In the 1990s, Barbara was part of the core team facilitating the global sustainability scenarios organised by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development.  She also contributed to the European Patent Office work published in 2007.  

Impact of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa

The 2001 study of the impact of HIV/AIDS on markets in Southern Africa was done for Shell Southern Africa to help develop the company’s response to the HIV and AIDS epidemics, including an understanding of their strategic implications. Once the work was done, the company agreed that the work should be publicly available on the web, through the Red Ribbon portal, as well as through selected presentations outside the company. A copy of the final report appears here on the Barbara Heinzen website, under “Epidemics and HIV/AIDS”.

In the Shell HIV study, Barbara Heinzen was the lead researcher and coordinator of the project, but not at all the sole author. The Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division (HEARD) at the University of Kwa-Zulu Natal were full partners, as were individuals from the strategy and health departments of Shell Southern Africa.

Futures of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda & East Africa

Between 1998-2008, Four East African scenario projects were organised in collaboration with the Society for International Development, SID. All of these studies are available through the SID website. These studies were designed from the start to encourage public discussion and reflection and are leading examples of this kind of work.

Barbara Heinzen’s role in the SID projects was as process designer and facilitator, a role she came to share with the SID staff in the later years.  In Kenya, the coordination of the project was done by the Institute of Economic Affairs, Nairobi, while the local chapters of SID in Tanzania and Uganda acted as coordinators in these two countries. Barbara Heinzen also worked with the editorial teams to develop and review the final text and presentations, but most of the work was done by the East African teams.

World Business Council for Sustainable Development

In 1997, the WBCSD published "Global Scenarios 2000-2050: Exploring Sustainable Development".   Barbara Heinzen was part of the core team facilitating this work and was especially involved in writing the Jazz scenario.  This assignment led her to write the paper, "Can Markets Manage Ecosystems?" which is available in the "Inventing Ecological Societies" section of this website.  She later wrote Feeling for Stones: learning and invention when facing the unknown to learn how we might invent ecological societies when we have no model to follow.

Center for Houston's Future

In 2009, the Center for Houston's Future started designing a project to look at the future of Greater Houston.  The outcome of this work can be seen at the Center's website.  The design of the project was based on the East African processes and involved people from across the Greater Houston region over a period of about 18 months.  As one person said during the last workshop, "I am impressed with the way we have learned to talk with each other and wish we could bottle for the whole region."

European Patent Office

In 2007, the European Patent Office published Scenarios for the Future, looking at the future of the global intellectual property regime.  The EPO also published a collection of interviews done with people around the world working with intellectual property.  Barbara was a member of the core team facilitating this work.

hyperlink (2001e) Peeling the skin off society: AIDS in Southern Africa
hyperlink Society for International Development
hyperlink (1998-2008) East African scenario work with the Society for International Development
hyperlink (1997) WBCSD Global Scenarios 2000-2050
hyperlink (2011) Center for Houston's Future
hyperlink (2007) European Patent Office Scenarios for the Future
? Barbara Heinzen, 2012. All rights reserved.